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Sam Darnold Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
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Right now, Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 194.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 197.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 194.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In a neutral context, Carolina has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Panthers are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Carolina to drop back to pass on 64.1% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Panthers have faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.7%).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's defensive tackles rank #28 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's linebackers rank #26 this season.
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CONS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #33-best in the league, completing passes at a 58.4% clip.In terms of efficiency, Darnold has been #33 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.35 yards per target.The Carolina Panthers are projected to run 60.8 plays in this matchup, the #29-most on the game slate.Carolina's O-Line grades out as the #32-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Carolina has run play-action on 23.7% of their passes this year, #24-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.New Orleans has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.8% of their targets, which ranks them #5-best in the NFL.The New Orleans Saints have had the #10-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #23-best in the league, Darnold has passed for215 yards per game.This year, the Panthers have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.6% of the time (#21 in the NFL).Carolina's offensive has kept pressure off Sam Darnold for 2.45 seconds on average this year (#17-most in the NFL).New Orleans's #15-ranked pass defense has allowed 245 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, New Orleans's defense is #14-best. This is because they allowed 7.51 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New Orleans Saints have had the #12-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have had the #11-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's defensive ends rank #16 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Saints, they've stacked the box on 13.3% of their plays this season, #19-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Darnold to exceed his player prop total 42.4% of the time. He projects for 175.3 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $8.86. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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