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Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 221.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 223.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 221.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #11-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.2% clip.This year, the Titans have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and means Tannehill's numbers may be artificially inflated.Tennessee's offensive has kept pressure off Ryan Tannehill for 2.32 seconds on average this year (#2-most in the NFL).Tennessee has run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Titans have faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (22.7%).In terms of passing efficiency, Miami's defense is #24-best. This is because they allowed 7.92 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's defensive tackles rank #31 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Dolphins, they've stacked the box on 18.2% of their plays this season, #9-most in football.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Tennessee has run the #26-fastest paced offense this season.The Titans enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.0% of the time (#31 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tennessee to drop back to pass on 52.4% of their plays in this game (#27-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tennessee's O-Line grades out as the #29-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Miami has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.1% of their targets, which ranks them #10-best in the NFL.The Miami Dolphins have had the #7-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's defensive ends rank #9 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #19-best in the league, Tannehill has passed for227 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Tannehill has been #23 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.07 yards per target.The Tennessee Titans are projected to run 63.2 plays in this matchup, the #14-most on the game slate.Miami's #22-ranked pass defense has allowed 260 passing yards per game this year.The Miami Dolphins have had the #16-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Miami Dolphins have had the #19-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's linebackers rank #11 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Tannehill to exceed his player prop total 37.6% of the time. He projects for 189.0 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $19.20. That makes its return on investment yield +17%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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