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Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
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Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 215.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 214.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 215.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #14-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.9% clip.Tennessee has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#18-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Tennessee is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The Titans offensive line has given Ryan Tannehill 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-best in football).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee have faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (22.7%).The 49ers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.7% of their targets, ranking #26-best in the NFL.San Francisco's cornerbacks grade out as the #27-best in pass coverage this year.49ers linebackers have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Tennessee Titans have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Titans project to run 60.9 plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 55.8% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL).Ryan Tannehill's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.San Francisco's safeties grade out as the #9-best in pass coverage this year.San Francisco's linebackers grade out as the #6-best in pass coverage this year.49ers defensive ends have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box on 9.7% of their plays this season, #26-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Tannehill has passed for 231 yards per game this year, #18-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Tannehill has been #20 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.14 yards per target.This offenses projects to pass 57.8% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The San Francisco 49ers enter this game with the #12-best pass defense this season, allowing 240 yards per game through the air.The San Francisco 49ers defense ranks #22-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.94.49ers defensive tackles have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Tannehill putting up 241.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $13.16. Its return on investment would yield +11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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