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Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 226.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 222.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 226.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Titans offensive line has given Ryan Tannehill 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee have faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#22.7%).The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.6% of their targets, ranking #30 in the NFL.Jacksonville's defense has been #28-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.39 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #24-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jaguars linebackers have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box on 18.8% of their plays this season, #6-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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The Tennessee Titans have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Tennessee is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 55.6% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 52.8% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Ryan Tannehill's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Tannehill has passed for 238 yards per game this year, #17-best in the league.He's been the #18-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.2% clip.Efficiency-wise, Tannehill has been #20 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.33 yards per target.Tennessee has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#16-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.The Titans project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this game with the #16-best pass defense this season, allowing 254 yards per game through the air.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #14-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #21-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 237.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.21. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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