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Russell Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
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Right now, Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 228.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 236.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 228.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of efficiency, Wilson has been #14 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.42 yards per target.This year, the Seahawks have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Wilson's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, Seattle has run the #3-fastest paced offense this season.The Seattle Seahawks are projected to run 64.5 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.The Seahawks enter as a 5.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.6% of the time (#10 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Seattle to drop back to pass on 63.7% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Arizona's defensive tackles rank #23 this season.
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CONS:
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Seattle's O-Line grades out as the #25-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Seahawks have faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).Arizona's #6-ranked pass defense has allowed 224 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Arizona's defense is #9-best. This is because they allowed 7.26 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Arizona's linebackers rank #4 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #23-best in the league, Wilson has passed for214 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #18-best in the league, completing passes at a 66.1% clip.Seattle's offensive has kept pressure off Russell Wilson for 2.51 seconds on average this year (#22-most in the NFL).Seattle has run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Arizona has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.7% of their targets, which ranks them #18-best in the NFL.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #20-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #11-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #15-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Arizona's defensive ends rank #16 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Cardinals, they've stacked the box on 12.1% of their plays this season, #22-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Wilson to exceed his player prop total 74.0% of the time. He projects for 299.8 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $44.08. That makes its return on investment yield +38%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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