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Russell Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions
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Right now, Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 234.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 237.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 234.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of efficiency, Wilson has been #14 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.37 yards per target.This year, the Seahawks have played in the #10-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Wilson's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, Seattle has run the #3-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.8% of the time (#10 in the NFL).In terms of passing efficiency, Detroit's defense is #29-best. This is because they allowed 8.41 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Detroit Lions have had the #31-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Detroit Lions have had the #29-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Detroit's defensive ends rank #32 this season.
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CONS:
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The Seattle Seahawks are projected to run 61.7 plays in this matchup, the #25-most on the game slate.The Seahawks are a 9.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Seattle to drop back to pass on 52.3% of their plays in this game (#28-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Seattle's O-Line grades out as the #26-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Seahawks have faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #26-best in the league, Wilson has passed for212 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #20-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.3% clip.Seattle's offensive has kept pressure off Russell Wilson for 2.51 seconds on average this year (#22-most in the NFL).Seattle has run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Detroit's #17-ranked pass defense has allowed 250 passing yards per game this year.Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.5% of their targets, which ranks them #11-best in the NFL.The Detroit Lions have had the #20-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Detroit's defensive tackles rank #13 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Detroit's linebackers rank #20 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Lions, they've stacked the box on 14.1% of their plays this season, #18-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Wilson to exceed his player prop total 47.1% of the time. He projects for 226.8 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.33 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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