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Russell Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks
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Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 240.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 229.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 240.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #8-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.8% clip.Efficiency-wise, Wilson has been #10 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.66 yards per target.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 63.5% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL).Houston's defense has been #29-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.44 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Houston Texans have had the #31-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #31-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #23-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Texans linebackers have ranked #28 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Seattle is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Russell Wilson's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle have faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#9.2%).Texans defensive ends have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Wilson has passed for 221 yards per game this year, #23-best in the league.Seattle has played in the #11-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Seahawks project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 55.1% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Seahawks offensive line has given Russell Wilson 2.51 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.The Houston Texans enter this game with the #17-best pass defense this season, allowing 255 yards per game through the air.The Texans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.5% of their targets, ranking #18 in the NFL.Texans defensive tackles have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Houston Texans have stacked the box on 15.9% of their plays this season, #11-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 258.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $6.80. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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