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Russell Gage Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
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Right now, Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Gage ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 72.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Gage ranks in the #68 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 76.4% of Atlanta's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Gage ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 20.6% of passes this season.Gage's 72.2% completion rate marks him in the #82 percentile among receivers.Atlanta's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.The Falcons enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Atlanta to drop back to pass on 66.6% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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As a unit, the Saints cornerbacks rank #7 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Saints safeties rank #8 in pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons are projected to run 60.3 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.Atlanta's O-Line grades out as the #31-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Gage open.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Gage for a 2.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Gage ranks in the #63 percentile and has put up 8.52 yards per target this season.The Saints's pass defense ranks #22-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 161 yards per game this season.The New Orleans Saints have allowed 8.25 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #17-highest among NFL opponents.The New Orleans Saints rank #12-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 64.9%.In a neutral context, Atlanta has run the #17-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.5% of the time (#14 in the NFL).Atlanta has run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Falcons have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Gage to exceed his player prop total 64.5% of the time. He projects for 67.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $23.59. That makes its return on investment yield +21%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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