Russell Gage Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions

Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-115/-115).

PROS:

Gage has been on the field for 70.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.

He has run a route on 75.5% of Atlanta's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #68 percentile among wide receivers.

His target share this season has been 20.2% -- #82 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Gage has been in the #81 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 72.2% completion rate.

This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.

Opposing wideouts have put up the #9-most yards per target (8.72) against the Lions this season.

Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.

CONS:

The Lions have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.8% of their targets this season, (#23-most in the league).

Atlanta is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Gage's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

NEUTRAL:

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gage is projected for 2.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers.

In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.31 yards per target this season, ranking in the #55 percentile.

Detroit's defense has allowed 156 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#16-most in football).

Detroit Lions safeties rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.

The Atlanta Falcons have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The Falcons project to run 63.1 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.

This offense passes the ball 61.4% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).

This offenses projects to pass 60.2% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta has faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 72.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.6% of the time.

THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $6.69. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.

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