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Russell Gage Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Gage has been on the field for 69.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.6% -- #77 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Gage has been in the #78 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 71.6% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #8-most yards per target (8.80) against the 49ers this season.The 49ers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.5% of their targets this season, (#4-most in the league).San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.Atlanta is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.9% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the #10 unit in pass coverage.Gage's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has run a route on 74.2% of Atlanta's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gage is projected for 2.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.10 yards per target this season, ranking in the #48 percentile.San Francisco's defense has allowed 158 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#17-most in football).The Atlanta Falcons have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 63.4 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.2% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta has faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.21 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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