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Russell Gage

Russell Gage Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -115.
  • Gage has been on the field for 69.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 18.2% -- #75 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Gage has been in the #78 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 72.1% completion rate.
  • The Panthers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 72.7% of their targets this season, (#2-most in the league).
  • The Falcons project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #10-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.8% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • CONS:
  • Carolina's defense has allowed 138 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).
  • Gage's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • He has run a route on 73.1% of Atlanta's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gage is projected for 2.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.76 yards per target this season, ranking in the #38 percentile.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #13-most yards per target (8.65) against the Panthers this season.
  • Carolina Panthers cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.
  • Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.9% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta has faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 51.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.78 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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