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Russell Gage Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Gage has been on the field for 68.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 16.2% -- #69 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 65.8 plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.Atlanta is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 69.8% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.65 yards per target this season, ranking in the #18 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #30-most yards per target (7.29) against the Buccaneers this season.The Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 62.8% of their targets this season, (#26-most in the league).Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.Gage's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has run a route on 71.8% of Atlanta's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #62 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gage is projected for 2.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.Gage has been in the #59 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 66.5% completion rate.Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#18-most in football).This offense passes the ball 61.9% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta has faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.28. It's return on investment would yeild 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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