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Russell Gage Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
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Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Gage has been on the field for 67.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 15.1% -- #67 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #3-most yards per target (9.57) against the Jaguars this season.The Jaguars have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 76.5% of their targets this season, (#1-most in the league).Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.3% of their passes this year, #11-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.Gage's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
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NEUTRAL:
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He has run a route on 69.6% of Atlanta's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #61 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gage is projected for 2.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.Jacksonville's defense has allowed 167 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#11-most in football).This offense passes the ball 62.0% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 60.7% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 44.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $2.26. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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