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Ronald Jones Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Right now, Ronald Jones Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 72.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Jones finds himself in the #31 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 29 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Jones for a 41.5% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #7-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 64.5 plays in this matchup, the #5-most on the game slate.The Buccaneers are a 14.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.The Jets defense has allowed 153 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #32-least in football.The New York Jets have allowed 5.08 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #32-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of New York have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of New York have been the #29-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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His 18.3% snap rate this year puts him in the #26 percentile among running backs.Tampa Bay has been the #32-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 29.0% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #25-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 36.7% of their plays.The defensive ends of New York have been the #9-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Jets have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #2-most in the NFL this year at 21.9% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Tampa Bay's ranks #17 in that regard this season.His carry rate of 28.0% this year puts him in the #51 percentile among running backs.This year, the Buccaneers have played in the #10-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Tampa Bay could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.The defensive tackles of New York have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Tampa Bay has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (12.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jones to exceed his player prop total 57.1% of the time. He projects for 83.4 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $7.74. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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