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Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
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Right now, Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 41.5 (-125/-105), with an implied projection of 42.9 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 41.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Burkhead for a 27.1% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Houston has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.Houston has been the #5-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 42.4% run rate in a neutral context.The linebackers of Tennessee have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Titans have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #25-most in the NFL this year at 9.9% of the time.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Houston's ranks #23 in that regard this season.This year, the Texans have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Houston could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for Houston this week.The Houston Texans are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #29-most on the game slate.The Texans are a 10.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #29-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 34.5% of their plays.The Titans defense has allowed 86 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #2-least in football.The Tennessee Titans have allowed 4.00 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #3-best in the metric this season.The safeties of Tennessee have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Houston has faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (15.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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Burkhead finds himself in the #33 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 31 yards.His 33.3% snap rate this year puts him in the #52 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 30.8% this year puts him in the #56 percentile among running backs.The defensive ends of Tennessee have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Tennessee have been the #20-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Burkhead to exceed his player prop total 52.6% of the time. He projects for 44.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.67 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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