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Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 43.8 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Burkhead has been the #59-leading rusher this season, tallying 19 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Burkhead is projected for 30.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Houston Texans have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 41.4% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.4% of the time in this contest.The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #29 against the run this year, holding opponents to 141 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.91 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#29-least in football).Chargers defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The Houston Texans offensive line has ranked #25 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Houston has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Texans passing the ball more than usual.Houston is a 13.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to runs 34.2% of the time in this contest (#30 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Chargers safeties have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Houston Texans have faced a stacked box 15.7% of the time this season -- #11-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 28.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #47 percentile among running backs.He has received 23.7% of Houston's carries this year -- #56 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Texans project to run 63.6 total plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chargers linebackers have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.34. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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