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Rex Burkhead

Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 48.3 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -120.
  • Burkhead has been the #65-leading rusher this season, tallying 12 yards per game on the ground.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Burkhead is projected for 45.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 42.0% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.0% of the time in this contest.

  • CONS:
  • The Houston Texans offensive line has ranked #24 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has received 15.5% of Houston's carries this year -- #69 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Texans passing the ball more than usual.
  • Houston is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 36.5% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Colts defensive tackles have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Colts linebackers have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Houston Texans have faced a stacked box 15.7% of the time this season -- #11-most in football.

  • He has been on the field for 22.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #33 percentile among running backs.
  • Houston has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Houston Texans have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Texans project to run 62.5 total plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have ranked #17 against the run this year, holding opponents to 113 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Indianapolis's defense has allowed 4.59 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#21-least in football).
  • Colts defensive ends have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Colts safeties have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #17 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 51.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.21 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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