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Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
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Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 48.3 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Burkhead has been the #65-leading rusher this season, tallying 12 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Burkhead is projected for 45.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offense runs the ball 42.0% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.0% of the time in this contest.
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CONS:
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The Houston Texans offensive line has ranked #24 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 15.5% of Houston's carries this year -- #69 percentile when it comes to running backs.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Texans passing the ball more than usual.Houston is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to runs 36.5% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Colts defensive tackles have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Colts linebackers have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Houston Texans have faced a stacked box 15.7% of the time this season -- #11-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 22.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #33 percentile among running backs.Houston has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Houston Texans have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Texans project to run 62.5 total plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.The Indianapolis Colts have ranked #17 against the run this year, holding opponents to 113 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Indianapolis's defense has allowed 4.59 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#21-least in football).Colts defensive ends have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Colts safeties have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #17 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 51.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.21 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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