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Ray-Ray McCloud Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Right now, Ray-Ray McCloud Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 36.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects McCloud for a 5.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Ravens's pass defense ranks #30-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 182 yards per game this season.The Baltimore Ravens have allowed 9.23 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #31-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Ravens cornerbacks rank #27 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Ravens safeties rank #29 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #4-fastest paced offense this season.The Steelers enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Pittsburgh's O-Line grades out as the #7-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find McCloud open.Pittsburgh's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Steelers have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
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CONS:
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McCloud ranks in the #5 percentile and has put up 4.95 yards per target this season.Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.The Baltimore Ravens rank #8-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 63.0%.Pittsburgh has run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, McCloud ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 47.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, McCloud ranks in the #46 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 49.9% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, McCloud ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 9.8% of passes this season.McCloud's 67.2% completion rate marks him in the #60 percentile among receivers.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 63.4 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time (#13 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Pittsburgh to drop back to pass on 60.6% of their plays in this game (#18-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects McCloud to exceed his player prop total 43.1% of the time. He projects for 29.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $7.27. That makes its return on investment yield +6%.
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