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Rashod Bateman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
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Rashod Bateman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His target share this season has been 16.2% -- #69 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.Baltimore is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Bateman's offensive line has been #7 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Baltimore Ravens have run play-action on 36.3% of their passes this year, #2-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Bateman is projected for -3.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #30 percentile among wide receivers.Cleveland's defense has allowed 148 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#23-most in football).Cleveland Browns cornerbacks rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Ravens project to run 60.6 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 53.4% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Bateman has been on the field for 59.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 65.8% of Baltimore's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.02 yards per target this season, ranking in the #47 percentile.Bateman has been in the #46 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.8% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #17-most yards per target (8.34) against the Browns this season.The Browns have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.1% of their targets this season, (#19-most in the league).This offense passes the ball 60.6% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL).The Ravens offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Baltimore has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 25.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.64 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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