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Rashard Higgins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
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Rashard Higgins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 15.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Cleveland has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Cleveland is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Higgins's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland has faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Higgins is projected for -3.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #28 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.95 yards per target this season, ranking in the #20 percentile.Higgins has been in the #16 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 56.7% completion rate.Green Bay's defense has allowed 146 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#24-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #28-most yards per target (7.51) against the Packers this season.The Packers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.7% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).The Cleveland Browns have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 59.0 plays in this contest, the #32-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 58.8% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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Higgins has been on the field for 51.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #53 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 54.5% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #48 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 9.0% -- #49 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 59.0% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 12.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.47 and with a negative ROI of -0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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