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Rashaad Penny Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions
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Right now, Rashaad Penny Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 61.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 62.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 61.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Penny for a 28.6% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Seattle has run the #3-fastest paced offense this season.The Seahawks are a 9.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #5-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 47.7% of their plays.The Lions defense has allowed 131 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #28-least in football.The defensive ends of Detroit have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Detroit have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Seattle has faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (9.2% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Seattle's ranks #27 in that regard this season.This year, the Seahawks have played in the #10-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Seattle could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.The Seattle Seahawks are projected to run 61.7 plays in this matchup, the #25-most on the game slate.Seattle has been the #23-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 37.2% run rate in a neutral context.
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NEUTRAL:
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Penny finds himself in the #62 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 49 yards.His 35.7% snap rate this year puts him in the #58 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 35.5% this year puts him in the #61 percentile among running backs.The Detroit Lions have allowed 4.62 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #22-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Detroit have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Detroit have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Lions have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #18-most in the NFL this year at 14.1% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Penny to exceed his player prop total 66.4% of the time. He projects for 86.4 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $27.76. That makes its return on investment yield +24%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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