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Randall Cobb Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Randall Cobb Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 25.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Cobb for a 3.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Cobb ranks in the #95 percentile and has put up 10.22 yards per target this season.Cobb's 76.5% completion rate marks him in the #91 percentile among receivers.The San Francisco 49ers rank #28-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.4%.As a unit, the 49ers cornerbacks rank #28 in pass coverage.The Green Bay Packers are projected to run 60.9 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.5% of the time (#5 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Green Bay to drop back to pass on 62.4% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Green Bay's O-Line grades out as the #11-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Cobb open.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Green Bay has run the #32-fastest paced offense this season.The Packers enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Cobb ranks in the #45 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 47.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Cobb ranks in the #49 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 55.7% of Green Bay's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Cobb ranks in the #50 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 10.1% of passes this season.The 49ers's pass defense ranks #16-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 146 yards per game this season.The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 8.55 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #22-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the 49ers safeties rank #14 in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Cobb to exceed his player prop total 62.6% of the time. He projects for 41.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $21.48. That makes its return on investment yield +20%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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