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Quez Watkins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Quez Watkins Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 27.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Watkins ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 77.2% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Watkins ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 75.8% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season.Watkins ranks in the #82 percentile and has put up 9.43 yards per target this season.Watkins's 72.3% completion rate marks him in the #81 percentile among receivers.The WFT's pass defense ranks #30-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 187 yards per game this season.The Washington Football Team have allowed 8.98 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #27-highest among NFL opponents.The Washington Football Team rank #29-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 69.6%.As a unit, the WFT safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.Philadelphia's O-Line grades out as the #4-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Watkins open.Philadelphia has run play-action on 32.4% of their passes this year, #5-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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The Eagles enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 54.3% of the time (#32 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Philadelphia to drop back to pass on 46.8% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Philadelphia's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.56 seconds on average this year (#26-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of earning targets, Watkins ranks in the #63 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.8% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Watkins for a 0.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.As a unit, the WFT cornerbacks rank #14 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Eagles have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Watkins to exceed his player prop total 55.1% of the time. He projects for 32.2 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $3.36. That makes its return on investment yield +3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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