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Quez Watkins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
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Quez Watkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Watkins has been on the field for 76.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.13 yards per target this season, ranking in the #77 percentile.Watkins has been in the #75 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.4% completion rate.New York's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#10-most in football).The Giants have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.6% of their targets this season, (#9-most in the league).Watkins's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Philadelphia Eagles have run play-action on 32.4% of their passes this year, #5-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Opposing wideouts have put up the #24-most yards per target (7.65) against the Giants this season.New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the #10 unit in pass coverage.Philadelphia is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 54.0% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 46.9% of the time in this contest (#32 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Eagles offensive line has given the QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#26-most time in the league).
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NEUTRAL:
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He has run a route on 75.0% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 13.9% -- #63 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Watkins is projected for -1.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.New York Giants safeties rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Eagles project to run 63.5 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Philadelphia has faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 25.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.78 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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