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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Right now, Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 280.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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This year, at #2-best in the league, Mahomes has passed for300 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #9-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Mahomes has been #5 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.75 yards per target.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 65.1 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.6% of the time (#2 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 60.2% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #26-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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The Chiefs are a 11.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's defensive ends rank #6 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's linebackers rank #5 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Pittsburgh's #11-ranked pass defense has allowed 221 passing yards per game this year.Pittsburgh has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.1% of their targets, which ranks them #13-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Pittsburgh's defense is #18-best. This is because they allowed 7.67 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #22-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #21-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's defensive tackles rank #16 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mahomes to exceed his player prop total 48.3% of the time. He projects for 275.7 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.43 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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