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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 271.5 (110/-140), with an implied projection of 261.5 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 273.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 271.5 @ -140.
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PROS:
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This year, at #2-best in the league, Mahomes has passed for300 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #9-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.7% clip.In terms of efficiency, Mahomes has been #4 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.81 yards per target.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #11-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 63.6 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.4% of the time (#2 in the NFL).Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Denver Broncos have had the #24-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Denver's defensive tackles rank #28 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Denver's linebackers rank #27 this season.
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CONS:
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The Chiefs are a 11.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Denver's #7-ranked pass defense has allowed 227 passing yards per game this year.Denver has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.8% of their targets, which ranks them #3-best in the NFL.The Denver Broncos have had the #4-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 61.6% of their plays in this game (#15-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.In terms of passing efficiency, Denver's defense is #13-best. This is because they allowed 7.46 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Denver Broncos have had the #22-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Denver's defensive ends rank #19 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mahomes to exceed his player prop total 48.1% of the time. He projects for 266.1 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
With favorable plus money odds (110) offered on the Over, this bet offers value even though the Over is expected to win less than 50% of the time.
With a +1% return on investment, the expected value on the OVER is $0.97.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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