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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 294.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 285.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 294.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #2-best in the league, Mahomes has passed for301 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #14-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.1% clip.In terms of efficiency, Mahomes has been #5 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.81 yards per target.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #9-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 63.7 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.6% of the time (#2 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 64.7% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Cincinnati's #28-ranked pass defense has allowed 267 passing yards per game this year.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #23-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's linebackers rank #32 this season.
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CONS:
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The Chiefs enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Chiefs have faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #5-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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Kansas City has run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Cincinnati has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.4% of their targets, which ranks them #22-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Cincinnati's defense is #17-best. This is because they allowed 7.68 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #14-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's defensive ends rank #15 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's defensive tackles rank #11 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Bengals, they've stacked the box on 15.7% of their plays this season, #12-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mahomes to exceed his player prop total 43.9% of the time. He projects for 277.2 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $5.53. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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