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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 274.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 275.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 274.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Mahomes has passed for 303 yards per game this year, #2-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Mahomes has been #6 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.72 yards per target.Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chiefs project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 71.2% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).Patrick Mahomes's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Pittsburgh's cornerbacks grade out as the #28-best in pass coverage this year.Pittsburgh's safeties grade out as the #30-best in pass coverage this year.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box on 19.3% of their plays this season, #5-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Kansas City is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City have faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).The Pittsburgh Steelers enter this game with the #9-best pass defense this season, allowing 234 yards per game through the air.Steelers defensive ends have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Steelers linebackers have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #16-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.3% clip.This offenses projects to pass 61.7% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.The Steelers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.0% of their targets, ranking #11-best in the NFL.The Pittsburgh Steelers defense ranks #18-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.63.Pittsburgh's linebackers grade out as the #21-best in pass coverage this year.Steelers defensive tackles have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Mahomes putting up 270.4 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.36 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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