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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 290.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 287.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 290.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Mahomes has passed for 311 yards per game this year, #2-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Mahomes has been #12 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.61 yards per target.Kansas City has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 71.3% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.7% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Patrick Mahomes's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Denver Broncos have had the #27-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Broncos defensive ends have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Kansas City is a 8.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City have faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#5.8%).The Broncos have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.9% of their targets, ranking #1 in the NFL.Denver's defense has been #10-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.51 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Denver Broncos have had the #6-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Denver Broncos have stacked the box on 8.9% of their plays this season, #27-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #18-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.3% clip.The Chiefs project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.The Denver Broncos enter this game with the #11-best pass defense this season, allowing 241 yards per game through the air.The Denver Broncos have had the #16-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Broncos linebackers have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 274.4 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 44.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $4.65. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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