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Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 45.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Beckham ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 68.3% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Beckham ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 79.1% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Beckham ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 17.6% of passes this season.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 67.0 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Rams enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.2% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 65.7% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Beckham open.
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CONS:
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Beckham ranks in the #20 percentile and has put up 6.87 yards per target this season.Beckham's 55.6% completion rate marks him in the #13 percentile among receivers.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 7.19 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #2-highest among NFL opponents.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank #7-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 62.7%.As a unit, the Buccaneers cornerbacks rank #10 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Buccaneers safeties rank #4 in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Beckham for a 2.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Buccaneers's pass defense ranks #19-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 149 yards per game this season.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Beckham to exceed his player prop total 51.1% of the time. He projects for 48.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.63 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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