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Odell Beckham Jr.

Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -115.
  • His target share this season has been 17.5% -- #73 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Rams project to run 64.4 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.
  • Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 66.2% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 66.0% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Beckham's offensive line has been #3 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Rams offensive line has given the QB 2.57 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.22 yards per target this season, ranking in the #23 percentile.
  • Beckham has been in the #11 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 52.4% completion rate.
  • Arizona's defense has allowed 135 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#28-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #26-most yards per target (7.59) against the Cardinals this season.
  • The Cardinals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.8% of their targets this season, (#23-most in the league).
  • Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.
  • Arizona Cardinals safeties rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.

  • Beckham has been on the field for 61.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #63 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 71.1% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #62 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Beckham is projected for 1.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.5% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.04 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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