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Nyheim Hines Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
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Nyheim Hines Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 13.9 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Hines has been the #60-leading rusher this season, tallying 18 yards per game on the ground.The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has ranked #4 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.In terms of efficiency, Arizona's defense has allowed 4.62 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#23-least in football).Cardinals defensive ends have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Cardinals safeties have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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He has received 11.4% of Indianapolis's carries this year -- #79 percentile when it comes to running backs.Indianapolis has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Indianapolis is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Cardinals defensive tackles have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 33.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #54 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hines is projected for -3.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Colts project to run 62.6 total plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 40.6% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.6% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 40.4% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Arizona Cardinals have ranked #17 against the run this year, holding opponents to 114 yards per game on the ground.Cardinals linebackers have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Indianapolis Colts have faced a stacked box 13.6% of the time this season -- #18-most in football.The Arizona Cardinals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 12.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #22 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 10.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 44.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $6.82. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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