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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Right now, Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 32.8 yards.

The money is on the Over: it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.

PROS:

This year, the Texans have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Collins's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.

Houston's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.

The Titans's pass defense ranks #31-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 183 yards per game this season.

The Tennessee Titans have allowed 8.63 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #23-highest among NFL opponents.

In a neutral context, Houston has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.

The Texans are a 10.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Houston to drop back to pass on 65.5% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.

Houston's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.26 seconds on average this year (#1-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.

Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Texans have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).

CONS:

Collins ranks in the #25 percentile and has put up 7.27 yards per target this season.

Collins's 55.7% completion rate marks him in the #13 percentile among receivers.

As a unit, the Titans safeties rank #2 in pass coverage.

The Houston Texans are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #29-most on the game slate.

In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.6% of the time (#28 in the NFL).

Houston's O-Line grades out as the #26-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Collins open.

NEUTRAL:

In terms of playing time, Collins ranks in the #58 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 54.3% of his team's snaps this season.

In terms of route running, Collins ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 67.6% of Houston's dropbacks this season.

In terms of earning targets, Collins ranks in the #58 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 12.8% of passes this season.

This week, THE BLITZ projects Collins for a 2.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.

The Tennessee Titans rank #17-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.5%.

As a unit, the Titans cornerbacks rank #19 in pass coverage.

Houston has run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ projects Collins to exceed his player prop total 55.2% of the time. He projects for 38.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $5.92. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.

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