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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 29.8 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -120.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #4-most yards per target (9.27) against the Jaguars this season.
  • The Jaguars have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 75.3% of their targets this season, (#1-most in the league).
  • Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Houston Texans have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Houston is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • The Texans offensive line has given the QB 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston has faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).

  • CONS:
  • Collins has been in the #17 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 56.8% completion rate.
  • The Texans project to run 61.8 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.3% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).
  • Collins's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • Collins has been on the field for 52.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 66.4% of Houston's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 12.2% -- #57 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Collins is projected for 1.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.67 yards per target this season, ranking in the #33 percentile.
  • Jacksonville's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#16-most in football).
  • Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.2% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 35.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.79. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.

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