| |
Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 22.1 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -120.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.35 yards per target this season, ranking in the #82 percentile.Westbrook has been in the #90 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 76.3% completion rate.Tennessee has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#18-most in football), which improves receiver efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Opposing wideouts have put up the #6-most yards per target (8.98) against the 49ers this season.The 49ers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.7% of their targets this season, (#5-most in the league).San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.Tennessee is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The Titans offensive line has given the QB 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (22.7%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Titans project to run 60.9 plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 55.8% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL).Westbrook's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Westbrook has been on the field for 51.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 57.8% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 10.7% -- #54 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Westbrook is projected for 0.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.San Francisco's defense has allowed 162 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#11-most in football).This offenses projects to pass 57.8% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 31.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $13.39. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
