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Nick Westbrook

Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 22.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -120.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.35 yards per target this season, ranking in the #82 percentile.
  • Westbrook has been in the #90 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 76.3% completion rate.
  • Tennessee has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#18-most in football), which improves receiver efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #6-most yards per target (8.98) against the 49ers this season.
  • The 49ers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.7% of their targets this season, (#5-most in the league).
  • San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.
  • Tennessee is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • The Titans offensive line has given the QB 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (22.7%).

  • CONS:
  • San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Tennessee Titans have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Titans project to run 60.9 plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 55.8% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL).
  • Westbrook's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • Westbrook has been on the field for 51.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 57.8% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 10.7% -- #54 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Westbrook is projected for 0.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.
  • San Francisco's defense has allowed 162 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#11-most in football).
  • This offenses projects to pass 57.8% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 31.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.6% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $13.39. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.

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