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Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 39.2 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -110.

PROS:

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Westbrook is projected for 9.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #100 percentile among wide receivers.

Tennessee is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The Titans offensive line has given the QB 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-most time in the league).

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (21.8%).

CONS:

New England's defense has allowed 144 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).

Opposing wideouts have put up the #25-most yards per target (7.72) against the Patriots this season.

The Patriots have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.9% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).

New England Patriots safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.

The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The Titans project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.

This offense passes the ball 57.0% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).

Westbrook's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

NEUTRAL:

Westbrook has been on the field for 42.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #45 percentile among wide receivers.

He has run a route on 49.6% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #46 percentile among wide receivers.

His target share this season has been 8.9% -- #48 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.

This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 26.2% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 49.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.5% of the time.

The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.88. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.

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