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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
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Right now, Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 93.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 87.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 93.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 56.6% snap rate this year puts him in the #84 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 62.7% this year puts him in the #92 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Chubb for a 13.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Cleveland has been the #11-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 40.7% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #10-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 42.7% of their plays.The Steelers defense has allowed 143 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #30-least in football.The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed 4.94 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #29-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Pittsburgh have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Chubb finds himself in the #96 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 95 yards.This year, the Browns have played in the #2-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Cleveland's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 3-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, Cleveland has run the #27-fastest paced offense this season.The Cleveland Browns are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.The defensive ends of Pittsburgh have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Cleveland has faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (16.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Steelers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #5-most in the NFL this year at 19.3% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Cleveland's ranks #22 in that regard this season.The linebackers of Pittsburgh have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Pittsburgh have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Chubb to exceed his player prop total 52.9% of the time. He projects for 98.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.29 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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