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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 53.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #79 percentile among running backs.He has received 58.7% of Cleveland's carries this year -- #14 percentile when it comes to running backs.Cleveland is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 41.5% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.5% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 46.3% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Chubb has been the #3-leading rusher this season, tallying 96 yards per game on the ground.Cleveland has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Cleveland Browns have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 60.4 total plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.The Baltimore Ravens have ranked #2 against the run this year, holding opponents to 83 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Baltimore's defense has allowed 3.99 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#6-least in football).Ravens defensive ends have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked box 16.7% of the time this season -- #7-most in football.The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #8 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cleveland Browns offensive line has ranked #22 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Chubb is projected for -5.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Ravens linebackers have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Ravens safeties have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 72.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.83 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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