My Account Log Out
 
Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
 
 
 
Right now, Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 26.5 (-105/-115), with an implied projection of 25.8 yards.

The money is on the Under: it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • In terms of playing time, Agholor ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 66.7% of his team's snaps this season.
  • In terms of route running, Agholor ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 80.7% of New England's dropbacks this season.
  • The New England Patriots are projected to run 63.9 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.
  • The Patriots enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects New England to drop back to pass on 57.6% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.

  • CONS:
  • The Bills's pass defense ranks #1-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 115 yards per game this season.
  • The Buffalo Bills have allowed 6.36 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #1-highest among NFL opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills rank #3-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.9%.
  • As a unit, the Bills cornerbacks rank #9 in pass coverage.
  • As a unit, the Bills safeties rank #1 in pass coverage.
  • In a neutral context, New England has run the #25-fastest paced offense this season.
  • In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).

  • NEUTRAL:
  • In terms of earning targets, Agholor ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.4% of passes this season.
  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Agholor for a 0.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • Agholor ranks in the #56 percentile and has put up 8.38 yards per target this season.
  • Agholor's 62.6% completion rate marks him in the #42 percentile among receivers.
  • New England's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Agholor open.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ projects Agholor to exceed his player prop total 46.4% of the time. He projects for 23.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $0.26. That makes its return on investment yield +0%.
     
     
     
    ABOUT WRITENOW™

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
     
     
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™