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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 20.1 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.
  • Agholor has been on the field for 78.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 86.8% of New England's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #83 percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Patriots project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.
  • New England is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Agholor's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England has faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (26.0%).

  • CONS:
  • Buffalo's defense has allowed 128 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#32-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #32-most yards per target (6.13) against the Bills this season.
  • The Bills have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.8% of their targets this season, (#28-most in the league).
  • Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.
  • Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.
  • The New England Patriots have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offenses projects to pass 55.3% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • His target share this season has been 13.7% -- #60 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Agholor is projected for -0.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.00 yards per target this season, ranking in the #66 percentile.
  • Agholor has been in the #53 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.4% completion rate.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.1% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).
  • The Patriots offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.3% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 21.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.50 and with a negative ROI of -4%.

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