| |
Najee Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 63.5 (-110/-110).
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Pittsburgh's ranks #9 in that regard this season.His 85.6% snap rate this year puts him in the #100 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 78.0% this year puts him in the #99 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #6-fastest paced offense this season.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 64.3 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 4.80 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #27-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Kansas City have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Kansas City have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Harris finds himself in the #91 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 71 yards.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Pittsburgh's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.The Steelers are a 11.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This week, THE BLITZ projects Harris for a 0.8% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Pittsburgh has been the #21-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.2% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #11-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 33.7% of their plays.The Chiefs defense has allowed 115 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #21-least in football.The defensive ends of Kansas City have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Kansas City have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Harris to exceed his player prop total 62.7% of the time. He projects for 82.4 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $21.71. That makes its return on investment yield +20%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
