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Najee Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Right now, Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 72.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Pittsburgh's ranks #9 in that regard this season.His 85.6% snap rate this year puts him in the #100 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 80.8% this year puts him in the #99 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #4-fastest paced offense this season.The defensive tackles of Baltimore have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Harris finds himself in the #92 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 73 yards.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Pittsburgh's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.The Steelers enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The Ravens defense has allowed 85 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #1-least in football.The Baltimore Ravens have allowed 4.03 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #5-best in the metric this season.The safeties of Baltimore have been the #10-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Pittsburgh has faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (16.1% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Ravens have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #8-most in the NFL this year at 18.4% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Harris for a 1.7% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 63.4 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.Pittsburgh has been the #20-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.4% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #16-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 39.4% of their plays.The defensive ends of Baltimore have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Baltimore have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Harris to exceed his player prop total 61.7% of the time. He projects for 91.4 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $17.70. That makes its return on investment yield +15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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