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Najee Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
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Right now, Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 75.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 74.4 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 72.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 75.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Pittsburgh's ranks #9 in that regard this season.His 84.7% snap rate this year puts him in the #100 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 79.7% this year puts him in the #99 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #4-fastest paced offense this season.The defensive tackles of Cleveland have been the #24-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Harris finds himself in the #92 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 66 yards.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Pittsburgh's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 3-mph wind in this game.The Browns defense has allowed 103 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #8-least in football.The Cleveland Browns have allowed 4.16 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #8-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Cleveland have been the #8-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Cleveland have been the #9-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Cleveland have been the #9-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Pittsburgh has faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (16.1% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Harris for a -1.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 63.8 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.Pittsburgh has been the #19-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.5% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #22-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 39.0% of their plays.The Browns have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #20-most in the NFL this year at 13.2% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Harris to exceed his player prop total 56.5% of the time. He projects for 85.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $8.63. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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