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Najee Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has ranked #8 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 83.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #100 percentile among running backs.He has received 79.9% of Pittsburgh's carries this year -- #2 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Minnesota Vikings have ranked #28 against the run this year, holding opponents to 129 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Minnesota's defense has allowed 4.70 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#25-least in football).Vikings defensive ends have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Vikings linebackers have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Harris has been the #9-leading rusher this season, tallying 65 yards per game on the ground.Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Pittsburgh is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to runs 34.6% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Vikings safeties have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a stacked box 16.1% of the time this season -- #10-most in football.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 16.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #10 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harris is projected for -0.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Steelers project to run 62.7 total plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 37.7% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.7% of the time in this contest.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 72.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.44 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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