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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -115.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has ranked #8 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 82.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #100 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 79.2% of Pittsburgh's carries this year -- #2 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Harris has been the #13-leading rusher this season, tallying 64 yards per game on the ground.
  • Pittsburgh has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Steelers project to run 60.2 total plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.
  • Pittsburgh is a 4.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have ranked #2 against the run this year, holding opponents to 83 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Baltimore's defense has allowed 4.04 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#6-least in football).
  • Ravens defensive ends have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a stacked box 16.1% of the time this season -- #10-most in football.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #8 most in the league.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harris is projected for -0.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 37.7% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.7% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 36.5% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Ravens linebackers have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Ravens safeties have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 75.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.2% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $16.64. It's return on investment would yeild 14%.

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