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Najee Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 65.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Harris has been the #10-leading rusher this season, tallying 69 yards per game on the ground.The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has ranked #8 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 84.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #100 percentile among running backs.He has received 80.0% of Pittsburgh's carries this year -- #2 percentile when it comes to running backs.Bengals defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bengals safeties have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Pittsburgh has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Steelers project to run 61.5 total plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.Pittsburgh is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked #4 against the run this year, holding opponents to 96 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Cincinnati's defense has allowed 4.23 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#9-least in football).Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harris is projected for -0.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #50 percentile among running backs.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 37.9% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.9% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 38.0% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Bengals linebackers have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a stacked box 15.4% of the time this season -- #13-most in football.The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 16.0% of the time this season, ranking as the #12 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 83.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $18.43. It's return on investment would yeild 16%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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