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Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 53.7% snap rate this year puts him in the #78 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 49.4% this year puts him in the #78 percentile among running backs.The Dolphins enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Miami has faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (7.8% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Miami's ranks #26 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Gaskin for a -17.6% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 60.6 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.Miami has been the #26-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 34.9% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #23-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.8% of their plays.The Saints defense has allowed 95 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #4-least in football.The New Orleans Saints have allowed 3.82 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #1-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Gaskin finds himself in the #49 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 41 yards.This year, the Dolphins have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Miami's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.In a neutral context, Miami has run the #12-fastest paced offense this season.The safeties of New Orleans have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Saints have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #19-most in the NFL this year at 13.3% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Gaskin to exceed his player prop total 55.8% of the time. He projects for 25.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $4.88. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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