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Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
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Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 54.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #80 percentile among running backs.He has received 52.4% of Miami's carries this year -- #22 percentile when it comes to running backs.Miami is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The New York Jets have ranked #31 against the run this year, holding opponents to 149 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 5.05 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#32-least in football).Jets defensive tackles have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jets linebackers have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jets safeties have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked box 7.8% of the time this season -- #29-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Miami Dolphins offensive line has ranked #27 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This offense runs the ball 34.0% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL), and they project to run 34.0% of the time in this contest.The New York Jets have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 21.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #2 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Gaskin has been the #38-leading rusher this season, tallying 40 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gaskin is projected for 0.5% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Miami has played in the #12-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Miami Dolphins have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Dolphins project to run 63.3 total plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 43.3% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Jets defensive ends have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 64.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.98. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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