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Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants

Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 52.7 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -120.

PROS:

He has been on the field for 54.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among running backs.

He has received 51.5% of Miami's carries this year -- #22 percentile when it comes to running backs.

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gaskin is projected for 13.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.

The Miami Dolphins have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

Miami is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

This offenses projects to runs 42.1% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The New York Giants have ranked #26 against the run this year, holding opponents to 130 yards per game on the ground.

In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.72 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#25-least in football).

Giants defensive tackles have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

Giants linebackers have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked box 7.8% of the time this season -- #29-most in football.

The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.

CONS:

The Miami Dolphins offensive line has ranked #27 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.

This offense runs the ball 34.4% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL), and they project to run 34.4% of the time in this contest.

NEUTRAL:

Gaskin has been the #38-leading rusher this season, tallying 40 yards per game on the ground.

Miami has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.

The Dolphins project to run 63.6 total plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.

Giants defensive ends have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

Giants safeties have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 71.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.7% of the time.

The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $23.69. It's return on investment would yeild 22%.

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