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Myles Gaskin

Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
 
 
 
Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 52.7 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -120.
PROS:
  • He has been on the field for 54.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 51.5% of Miami's carries this year -- #22 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gaskin is projected for 13.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Miami Dolphins have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Miami is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 42.1% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The New York Giants have ranked #26 against the run this year, holding opponents to 130 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.72 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#25-least in football).
  • Giants defensive tackles have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Giants linebackers have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked box 7.8% of the time this season -- #29-most in football.
  • The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line has ranked #27 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • This offense runs the ball 34.4% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL), and they project to run 34.4% of the time in this contest.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Gaskin has been the #38-leading rusher this season, tallying 40 yards per game on the ground.
  • Miami has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Dolphins project to run 63.6 total plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.
  • Giants defensive ends have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Giants safeties have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 71.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.7% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $23.69. It's return on investment would yeild 22%.
     
     
     
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