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Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
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Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Gaskin has been the #40-leading rusher this season, tallying 39 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 54.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #82 percentile among running backs.He has received 52.1% of Miami's carries this year -- #23 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gaskin is projected for 12.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #93 percentile among running backs.The Miami Dolphins have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Panthers defensive ends have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Panthers defensive tackles have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Panthers safeties have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked box 8.1% of the time this season -- #30-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Miami Dolphins offensive line has ranked #26 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This offense runs the ball 33.4% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL), and they project to run 33.4% of the time in this contest.The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 21.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #2 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Miami has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Dolphins project to run 62.6 total plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 38.2% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Carolina Panthers have ranked #17 against the run this year, holding opponents to 112 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Carolina's defense has allowed 4.39 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#13-least in football).Panthers linebackers have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 68.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $16.09. It's return on investment would yeild 14%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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